Understanding the 4-Star Value Trap
Unlike 5-stars with guaranteed pity, 4-stars operate on diluted probability. Each featured 4-star has only 16.7% chance per guaranteed 4-star pull (every 10 warps). Phase III's 15-day window amplifies FOMO, creating dangerous spending loops.
The psychology: When you pull a 4-star but it's not your target, your brain interprets this as almost winning, triggering dopamine responses that sustain pulling behavior far beyond planned budgets.
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What Defines a 'Value Trap'
Value traps occur when perceived benefit exceeds actual mathematical value through three mechanics:
- Diluted probability pools: 16.7% per featured 4-star vs guaranteed 5-star at 90 pulls
- No targeting guarantee: Could pull 100+ times without your target
- Escalating opportunity costs: 210 pulls average for E6 4-star (33,600 Jades) vs 28,800 Jades maximum for guaranteed featured 5-star
Standard banner availability worsens 4-star value—all eventually appear in permanent pools and Eidolon shops. Aggressive limited banner pulling sacrifices irreplaceable limited characters for eventually-obtainable upgrades.
Why Phase III Creates Perfect Trap Conditions
Dual 5-star structure splits attention between Aglaea (Lightning Remembrance) and Sunday (Imaginary Harmony), creating decision paralysis. Players rationalize pulling for safe 4-star value instead.
Limited income: F2P earns 4,000-5,000 Jades (25-31 pulls)—barely one-third of soft pity. Wasting 10-20 pulls on 4-stars sacrifices meaningful 5-star progress.
Character trap archetypes:
- Tingyun: Functions excellently at E0, eidolons unnecessary
- Yukong: Requires precise speed tuning limiting flexibility regardless of eidolons
- Dan Heng: E6 performance reaches only 60-70% of modern E0 limited 5-star Hunt DPS
The Psychology Behind 'Just One More Pull'
Sunk cost fallacy: After spending 3,000 Jades without target, pressure intensifies to not waste those pulls. Past expenditures are irretrievable—evaluate each pull independently.
Variable ratio reinforcement: Same mechanism as slot machines. The 10-pull guarantee provides just enough predictability while 16.7% featured rate ensures frequent near misses.
Social proof: Community showcases of E6 4-stars create aspirational benchmarks. Players underestimate resource investment, focusing on results rather than the 30+ pull average per specific featured 4-star.
Banner Mechanics: Pity System Deep Dive
Character Event Warp guarantees one 4-star every 10 pulls, with 0.6% base 5-star rate. When you receive a 4-star: 50% chance it's a character vs Light Cone. If character, three featured 4-stars share equal probability—16.7% each. Each individual pull has ~8.35% chance of being your specific target.
Check pity: Warp menu → Character Event Warp → View Details → Records. Count pulls since last 5-star.
How 4-Star Pity Works
The 10-pull guarantee operates independently from 5-star pity. You could pull a 5-star on pull 7, get guaranteed 4-star on pull 10, then another 5-star on pull 13—each system tracks separately.
When guarantee triggers: Game determines character vs Light Cone (50/50), then featured vs off-banner. Off-banner 4-stars include entire standard pool. If you get off-banner, there's no guarantee next 4-star will be featured—the 50/50 resets.
Average 30 pulls per specific featured 4-star represents statistical mean. Individual experiences vary wildly—some get lucky at 10 pulls, others require 60+.
Soft Pity and Hard Pity Thresholds
Character Event Warp:
- Soft pity: Pull 74 (0.6% → ~6% per pull, escalating)
- Hard pity: Pull 90 (guaranteed)
- Most players hit 5-stars between pulls 75-85
Light Cone Event Warp:
- Soft pity: Pulls 63-65
- Hard pity: Pull 80 (12,800 Jades)
- Base rate: 0.8%, featured guarantee: 75%
50/50 system: First 5-star has 50% chance of being featured. Losing gives standard 5-star (Bronya, Gepard, Welt, Bailu, Himeko, Clara, Yanqing) and guarantees next 5-star is featured. Pity carries between banners.
Why 4-Star Targeting Is Mathematically Inefficient
Core inefficiency: Three probability gates compound to 16.7% per guaranteed 4-star pull. Average six 4-star guarantees (60 pulls) to obtain target twice.
Comparison:
- 5-star: 14,400 Jades guarantees one, 28,800 maximum for featured
- 4-star E6: 210 pulls average (33,600 Jades) with NO guarantee
Opportunity cost: 210 pulls could guarantee two limited 5-stars. Single E0 limited 5-star typically outperforms E6 4-star. Aglaea E0 > Dan Heng E6. Sunday E0 > Yukong E6.
Phase III Featured 4-Stars: Value Assessment
Tingyun Analysis
Base stats (Lv80): 846 HP, 529 ATK, 396 DEF, 112 SPD
Kit:
- Skill: +50% ATK (capped at 25% of Tingyun's ATK, 3 turns) + 40% ally's ATK as Lightning DMG
- Ultimate: 50 Energy to ally + 60% DMG for 3 turns (costs 130 Energy)
- Talent: +60% buffed ally's ATK as Lightning DMG
Optimal build: 2,400+ ATK, 146-160 SPD, 3,000+ HP | 4pc Sacerdos' Relived Ordeal + Broken Keel
Eidolon value:
- E0: Complete functionality
- E1: +15% DEF after Skill (2/10 value—rarely matters)
- E2: Ultimate DMG bonus 60% → 72% (4/10—faces diminishing returns)
- E4: Skill duration 3 → 4 turns (3/10—minor QoL)
- E6: +10 Energy on Basic ATK (3/10—energy isn't bottleneck)
Total E0-E6 improvement: 15-20% performance gain. Not worth 180+ pull investment when those resources could secure limited 5-star support like Sunday.
Yukong Meta Position
Base stats (Lv80): 917 HP, 599 ATK, 374 DEF, 107 SPD
Kit:
- Skill: 2 Roaring Bowstrings stacks; when both active, allies gain +80% ATK for 2 turns
- Ultimate: 380% ATK Imaginary DMG + 28% CRIT Rate + 65% CRIT DMG when stacks active
- Talent: Enhanced Basic ATK dealing +90% ATK Imaginary DMG
Critical flaw: Must move 1-2 SPD faster than DPS to ensure buffs apply. Creates fragile turn order dependencies that break with enemy SPD manipulation. Stacks expire when she attacks—requires careful turn management.
Optimal build: 3,800+ HP, 1,000+ DEF, 30% Effect RES | 2pc Wastelander + 2pc Musketeer | SPD must match DPS +1/+2
Eidolons: E1 extends stack duration (minor), E2 grants +40% Energy regen (doesn't solve core issues), E4 provides +40% ATK when on-field (situational), E6 grants extra stacks (marginal). None address fundamental speed-tuning fragility.
Verdict: Niche option outperformed by consistent buffers like Bronya or Sunday.
Dan Heng in 2026
Base stats (Lv80): 882 HP, 546 ATK, 396 DEF, 110 SPD—mediocre for Hunt in 2026
Eidolons:
- E1: Skill +12% CRIT Rate for 2 turns
- E2: +15% SPD for 2 turns after eliminating enemy (unreliable in boss fights)
- E4: Skill DMG +40% (only meaningful damage eidolon)
- E6: -12% enemy Wind RES for 2 turns
Performance: E6 Dan Heng reaches 60-70% of modern E0 limited 5-star Hunt DPS.
Better alternatives: Dr. Ratio (free from Simulated Universe), Seele, Topaz—all outperform at E0.
Opportunity cost: Pulls could progress toward Aglaea (unique Lightning Remembrance role) or Sunday (superior Harmony support).
Standard banner and Eidolon shop availability make limited banner pulling for Dan Heng objectively poor value.
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Real Cost Analysis
Average investment to E6: 210 pulls (33,600 Jades)
- Each copy averages 30 pulls at 16.7% rate
- Seven total copies needed (initial + 6 eidolons)
Phase III F2P income: 4,000-5,000 Jades (25-31 pulls)
- Requires saving from 6-7 patches to afford E6 on single 4-star
- Assumes zero spending on other banners
Real-world cost: Most efficient pack (980 Shards/$99.99) provides 6,272 Jades after first-time bonus, 3,136 standard. Reaching 33,600 Jades requires ~11 packs at standard rates—over $1,000 for single 4-star E6.
Variance risk:
- 13.5% chance of 60+ pulls without target even once
- 3.8% chance of 90+ pulls for single copy
- Compounds when chasing multiple eidolons
Opportunity Cost: Sacrificed 5-Stars
Every 10 pulls = 11% progress toward soft pity (74 pulls) or 11.1% toward hard pity (90 pulls). Spending 60 pulls on 4-stars consumes 66% of pity cycle.
Phase III dual banner: Aglaea (Lightning Remembrance DPS, limited alternatives) and Sunday (premium Harmony with action advance). Missing either creates roster gaps persisting months until reruns.
Future considerations: Version 3.9 leaks suggest meta-defining characters. Exhausting resources on Phase III 4-stars forces skipping high-value future banners or spending money to compensate.
Long-term value: Limited 5-stars enable new team archetypes, provide unique mechanics, receive infrequent reruns (6-12 months). Four-stars appear on multiple banners annually and enter standard pools—eventually obtainable through passive play.
Player Testimonials
Community data shows ~35% of mid-game players (Trailblaze Level 40-60) spent 40+ pulls chasing specific 4-stars on limited banners. Of those, 60% expressed regret after failing to obtain target or realizing minimal eidolon impact.
Typical scenario: Player enters Phase III with 8,000 Jades (50 pulls) at zero pity. Wants Aglaea but also Tingyun eidolons. Spends 30 pulls, gets Yukong twice and Dan Heng once—no Tingyun. Frustrated, spends another 20 pulls, finally gets Tingyun E1. Now at 50/90 pity without Aglaea, can't reach soft pity before banner ends.
Recovery: Requires 2-3 patches of strict discipline, skipping subsequent banners entirely. This recovery period creates sustained FOMO that tests retention.
Decision Framework: When to Pull, When to Stop
Establish clear goals before pulling: I will spend X pulls attempting Y character, then stop regardless of results. Prevents emotional decision-making during dopamine-driven pulling.
Early Pity (0-30 Pulls)
Risk level: Low. Base 5-star rate 0.6% × 30 pulls = 16.6% cumulative chance.
Strategy: Only pull if satisfied with ANY outcome. If you want Aglaea and would be happy getting her early, pulling 20-30 times for Tingyun carries acceptable risk. If you DON'T want Aglaea, don't pull at all.
Resource impact: With 25-31 pulls available Phase III, spending 10 pulls consumes 32-40% of total income. Significantly delays next guaranteed 5-star.
Mid-Pity (31-65 Pulls)
Risk level: Moderate-High. At 50 pulls, ~26% cumulative 5-star chance. At 60 pulls, ~31%.
Strategy: Only pull if you actively want the featured 5-star. If uncertain between Aglaea and Sunday, don't let RNG decide—make strategic choice first.
Sunk cost trap: Players who spent 20 pulls in early pity feel pressure to continue. Those 20 pulls are gone regardless—evaluate each new pull independently.
Late Pity (66+ Pulls)
Risk level: Extreme. At 70 pulls, ~40% cumulative chance. At 73 pulls, one pull from soft pity (6%+ individual rate).
Strategy: NEVER pull for 4-stars. Only acceptable scenario: You actively want featured 5-star and are pulling to guarantee acquisition.
Emergency stop: If you accidentally enter late pity chasing 4-stars, STOP IMMEDIATELY. Don't rationalize just one more 10-pull. Each pull dramatically increases 5-star risk.
The 'One 10-Pull Rule'
Simple framework: Allow exactly one 10-pull attempt for 4-star acquisition per banner, executed only in early pity (0-30 pulls).
Implementation:
- Before pulling, verbally commit: I will do one 10-pull for Tingyun, then stop
- After 10-pull, immediately exit warp screen
- Don't check Jade balance or browse community showcases
- Accept results—whether target, different featured, or off-banner
Value: Prevents resource hemorrhaging through enforced discipline. One controlled attempt infinitely better than uncontrolled spending.
Budget Management for F2P/Low-Spenders
Phase III income sources:
- Daily training: 60 Jades × 15 days = 900 (5.6 pulls)
- Nameless Honor free track: 800-1,000 (~5-6 pulls)
- Events: 1,200-1,500 (~7.5-9 pulls)
- Simulated Universe weekly: 225 × 2 = 450 (~2.8 pulls)
- Exploration/achievements: 500-1,500 (~3-9 pulls)
- Total: 4,000-5,000 Jades (25-31 pulls)
Resource allocation: Choose between current participation and future saving. Spending all 25-31 pulls advances pity 28-34% but depletes reserves for 3.9+.
50/50 planning:
- Guaranteed featured status: Need 74-90 pulls to secure target
- 50/50 status: Need 148-180 pulls for guaranteed acquisition (3-4 patches saving for F2P)
Emergency reserve: Maintain minimum 5,000 Jade reserve (31 pulls) never spent except on highest-priority targets. Provides crucial flexibility.
Stellar Jade Income Projection
Daily training: 60 Jades/day × 15 days = 900 Jades. Requires 15-20 minutes gameplay. Missing one day costs 60 Jades.
Nameless Honor: Level 30 (F2P achievable) provides ~680 Jades plus Star Rail Passes.
Events: Combat challenges (400-600), exploration (300-400), login bonuses (200-300). Total 1,200-1,500 Jades requiring 3-5 hours across 15 days.
Simulated Universe: World 6 completion yields 225 Jades weekly (450 total). Requires 30-45 minutes using meta teams.
Memory of Chaos: Floors 9-12 provide 600 Jades per reset (1,200 if cleared during Phase III). Requires developed roster.
Priority Allocation
Banner value assessment: Compare current offerings vs leaked future content and roster gaps.
Roster gap analysis:
- Lack strong Lightning DPS → Aglaea addresses critical need
- Already have Acheron/Jing Yuan → Aglaea provides redundancy
- Lack action-advance support → Sunday enables new compositions
- Already have Bronya → Sunday offers marginal improvement
Must-pull threshold: Only spend on characters that are (1) meta-defining for role, (2) enable entirely new archetypes, or (3) fill critical roster gaps.
Emergency Reserve Strategy
5,000 Jade minimum (31 pulls) provides crucial flexibility. Building requires 1-2 patches saving.
Tiered system:
- 5,000 Jades: Minimum emergency reserve
- 14,400 Jades: Comfortable reserve (guaranteed 5-star)
- 28,800 Jades: Optimal reserve (guaranteed featured even after losing 50/50)
Reserve exceptions: Only break for characters meeting ALL criteria: (1) meta-defining, (2) no comparable alternatives, (3) unlikely rerun within 6 months, (4) enable multiple desired team compositions.
Long-Term Account Planning
Standard banner mechanics ensure eventual 4-star acquisition. Over 6-12 months, F2P accumulates 50-80 standard pulls through monthly shop exchanges and events, naturally obtaining multiple 4-star copies.
Monthly Starlight exchange: 34 Starlight allows direct purchase of specific 4-stars from shop. Deterministic acquisition eliminates RNG.
Patience yields superior results: Player who never pulls for 4-stars on limited banners but uses standard pulls/shops will obtain E6 most standard 4-stars within 12-18 months. Player who aggressively chases 4-stars sacrifices multiple limited 5-stars—objectively worse long-term value.
Standard Banner Acquisition Over Time
With 20+ 4-stars in pool, each has ~4-5% chance per 4-star pull. Over 100+ standard pulls (6-8 months F2P), you'll obtain 10+ 4-stars with high likelihood of duplicates.
Monthly income:
- Shop: 5 Intertwined Fates for 75 Starlight (F2P earns 100-150 Starlight monthly)
- Herta's Store: 2-3 standard pulls monthly from Bonds
- Total: 7-13 standard pulls monthly (84-156 annually)
12-month cumulative: 100-150 standard pulls yielding 10-15 4-stars. With 20+ in pool, you'll obtain 3-5 duplicates through probability.
Building Roster Depth vs Vertical Investment
Roster depth (many characters at moderate investment) enables flexible team building. Memory of Chaos, Pure Fiction, Apocalyptic Shadow require two teams each—demanding 8-12 built characters minimum.
Vertical investment (E6 4-stars, E1-E6 5-stars) provides marginal improvements. Well-built E0 5-star clears all content. E1-E2 eidolons offer 10-20% improvement—nice but unnecessary.
Content difficulty favors depth. Endgame features elemental weaknesses requiring diverse character types. One E6 Lightning DPS doesn't help when content needs Fire, Ice, Physical simultaneously.
Optimal strategy: Acquire E0 copies of meta-defining limited 5-stars across all roles and elements. Build standard 4-stars to E0-E2 through passive acquisition. Only pursue high eidolons for characters you actively enjoy, not meta optimization.
Common Misconceptions
Myth: 'I Need E6 4-Stars for Endgame'
Memory of Chaos floor 12 clear data shows 70%+ use E0-E2 4-stars. Remaining 30% using E3+ typically feature whales with E6 5-stars—4-star eidolons aren't determining factor.
Pure Fiction and Apocalyptic Shadow similarly show E0 viability. Proper relic builds, team synergy, rotation execution matter far more than eidolon levels.
Budget clear guides prove E0 accessibility. Community theorycrafters regularly publish F2P clears using E0 4-stars with 4-star Light Cones and achievable relic standards.
Myth: 'Featured Rate-Up Guarantees Quick Copies'
16.7% creates false accessibility. 1 in 6 chance sounds favorable, but applies per 4-star pull, not per warp. Actually looking at 60 pulls average for target.
Variance: 37% of players need 40+ pulls, 20% need 50+, 13% need 60+ for single copy. Average outcome less common than expected.
Multiple copies: Chasing E6 means rolling 16.7% dice seven times independently. Extreme variance—some reach E6 in 150 pulls, others require 300+.
Warning Signs You're Falling Into Trap
Rationalization language: Just one more 10-pull,I'm so close,I've already spent this much,Won't be rate-up again for months.
Pity position awareness loss: Can't immediately state current pity counter = impulsive pulling.
Budget deviation: Planned 20 pulls but spent 40 = fallen into trap. Considering spending money when planned F2P = fallen into trap.
Post-pull regret: Disappointment, frustration, anxiety after pulling session = over-pulled. Healthy sessions end with satisfaction or acceptance.
Smart Resource Acquisition
Daily training: 60 Jades for 15-20 minutes—most time-efficient source. Missing one day costs 60 Jades. Set reminders.
Weekly optimization: Focus on missions with natural overlap: Complete 14 Daily Training (automatic with daily login), Clear Simulated Universe 1 time (overlaps with Jade farming), Spend 500 Trailblaze Power (natural through relic farming).
Event timing: Complete early in duration to avoid last-minute rushing. Most require 1-2 hours total.
Exploration: Each map contains 2,000-3,000 Jades in chests/quests/achievements. New players should prioritize before pulling.
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Top-up timing: First-time bonuses on each pack tier provide 2× Shards. After exhausting, focus on largest packs (best Shard-per-dollar).
Monthly Express Supply Pass ($4.99): 300 Shards immediately + 90 Jades daily × 30 days (2,700 Jades) = 3,000 Jades equivalent (18.75 pulls for $5). Most cost-effective purchase—prioritize before larger packs.
Spending discipline: Set monthly limits before purchasing. Never exceed pre-established limits regardless of temptation. Treat as planned budget allocation, not emotional impulse.
Recovery Strategies If You Over-Pulled
Damage assessment: Check current pity, calculate pulls to next guaranteed 5-star, inventory remaining Jades. At 60/90 pity with 2,000 Jades, need 4,800 more (30 pulls)—approximately 1.5 patches saving for F2P.
Resource triage: If over-pulled and can't afford target 5-star, accept loss and redirect toward next high-value banner. Continuing through spending creates deeper holes—cut losses.
Psychological recovery: Over-pulling creates regret, frustration, anxiety. Recognize feelings are temporary and account isn't ruined. One poor decision doesn't define long-term progression.
Community support: HSR communities include many who've experienced over-pulling regret. Sharing experience provides perspective and motivation.
Adjusting Future Plans
Banner priority reassessment: If depleted, skip next 1-2 banners to rebuild. Review leaked schedules and identify which you can realistically afford.
Rerun awareness: Most limited 5-stars rerun within 6-12 months. Missed character = another opportunity with more resources saved.
Meta evolution: Characters seeming essential now may become less critical as new options release. Skipping current to save for future sometimes yields better value.
Maximizing Unintended 4-Star Value
Unexpected eidolons aren't worthless—optimize through team building. Pulled Yukong chasing Tingyun? Build team leveraging her CRIT buffs with Seele or Dr. Ratio.
Off-meta investment: Dan Heng E4-E6 might not match modern 5-stars, but viable for secondary teams in Pure Fiction/Apocalyptic Shadow.
Starlight conversion: Duplicate 4-stars grant 8 Starlight each. Five unwanted duplicates = 40 Starlight—enough to purchase specific 4-star from monthly shop.
FAQ
What is the 4-star value trap? Players spend excessive pulls chasing specific 4-stars on limited banners, sacrificing guaranteed 5-star acquisition for uncertain outcomes. With only 16.7% chance per 4-star pull and no guarantee, players often spend 30-60+ pulls without success.
How many pulls for specific 4-star in Phase III? Averages 30 pulls per copy based on 16.7% rate. Variance is extreme—37% need 40+, 20% need 50+, 13% need 60+ for single copy. No guarantee mechanism.
Should I pull for Tingyun eidolons or save for 5-stars? Save for 5-stars. Tingyun functions excellently at E0. Her E0-E6 provides only 15-20% improvement, while 180+ pulls required could guarantee limited 5-star with far more account value.
When should I stop pulling on Phase III? Stop immediately if at 31+ pity and don't want featured 5-star. One 10-Pull Rule: Allow one 10-pull attempt in early pity (0-30), then stop regardless. Never pull for 4-stars past 65 pity.
Are 4-stars available in standard banner? Yes. All standard 4-stars (Tingyun, Yukong, Dan Heng) appear in standard pulls. Over 6-12 months, F2P accumulates 50-80 standard pulls through shops/events, naturally obtaining multiple copies without limited banner spending.
How many Jades can F2P earn during Phase III? 4,000-5,000 Jades (25-31 pulls) through daily training (900), Nameless Honor (800-1,000), events (1,200-1,500), Simulated Universe (450), miscellaneous (500-1,000). Insufficient for guaranteed 5-star but meaningful pity progress.
