HSR Tingyun 3.8 Rates: Real Cost for 4-Star Copies (60+ Pulls)

Banner Overview (January 28 - February 12)

Phase III runs 15 days with two 5-star reruns: Aglaea (Lightning Remembrance) and Sunday (Imaginary Harmony). 4-star roster: Tingyun (Lightning Harmony), Yukong (Imaginary Harmony), Dan Heng (Wind Hunt). Three-way split significantly impacts individual character acquisition rates.

Light Cone banners feature Time Woven Into Gold and A Grounded Ascent (5-star), plus Geniuses' Greetings, Trend of the Universal Market, and Dance! Dance! Dance! (4-star).

For efficient warp currency, Honkai Star Rail Oneiric Shards top up through BitTopup offers competitive pricing with instant delivery.

Banner Duration: Shortest phase in 3.8 cycle. Pity carries over between same-type banners, but rate-up pool resets completely when Phase III ends.

Stellar Jade Income: F2P players get ~2,000-2,500 Jade during banner window (12-15 pulls) from daily missions, events, exploration.

4-Star Rate-Up System Mechanics

Base Rate: 5.1% per pull for any 4-star (character or Light Cone). 0.6% for 5-star operates separately.

Hard Pity: Guaranteed 4-star every 10 pulls. Counter resets immediately upon any 4-star acquisition.

Featured Distribution: When you pull 4-star:

• 50% chance = one of three featured 4-stars
• If successful, 33.3% chance for each (Tingyun/Yukong/Dan Heng)
• Your first 4-star = only 16.7% chance (50% × 33.3%) of being Tingyun

50/50 Guarantee: Lose initial 50/50 (get off-banner)? Next 4-star within 20 pulls guaranteed featured—but still 33.3% chance among three rate-ups.

Worst case: Two full 10-pull cycles. First yields off-banner, second guarantees featured (still random among three).

Math Behind 'Just One Copy'

Per-Pull Probability: 5.1% × 50% × 33.3% = 0.85% for Tingyun specifically.

At 10-pull guarantee: 16.7% for Tingyun (no prior guarantee active). With featured guarantee: 33.3%.

Realistic Expectations:

• 40-50 pulls = ~50% cumulative probability
• 60-70 pulls = ~75% cumulative probability
• 100+ pulls = worst-case scenarios (statistically uncommon)

Community Data: Player reports show median 40-60 pulls for specific 4-star targets. 15-20% require 80+ pulls, 5-10% exceed 100 pulls. Aligns with theoretical models—60 pulls isn't pessimistic, it's mathematically grounded.

Tingyun Eidolon Value

E0 Core Kit:

• Skill: +25% ATK (capped at 15% of Tingyun's ATK) for 3 turns, adds 20% ally ATK as bonus Lightning DMG
• Ultimate: 50 Energy + 20% DMG boost for 2 turns
• Talent: +30% ally ATK as Lightning DMG when enemies attacked
• Delivers 85-90% of total potential value

E1-E3: Incremental 5-8% improvements per eidolon. Cumulative 15-20% boost vs E0. Rarely changes rotation patterns.

E4-E6: Luxury territory. E6 = ~30-35% improvement vs E0 in optimal conditions. Poor resource allocation for most accounts.

Meta Relevance: Universal Lightning Harmony support, fits multiple teams. But alternative Harmony supports may outperform in specific comps. E0 adequate for Memory of Chaos, Pure Fiction, Apocalyptic Shadow.

Hidden Costs: 60 Pulls Reality

Stellar Jade: 60 pulls = 9,600 Jade (160 per pull). Equals entire month of F2P income (8,000-9,000 monthly average).

With Monthly Card: 11,000 Jade monthly. 60 pulls = 85%+ of income.

Oneiric Shards: After first-time bonuses, $50-80 USD for 60 pulls. HSR Oneiric Shards instant recharge through BitTopup maximizes value.

Opportunity Cost - 5-Star Pity:

• Low pity (0-30): Minimal 5-star risk, but opportunity cost remains
• Mid pity (40-60): Dangerous—could trigger unwanted 5-star
• High pity (70+): Avoid 4-star chasing entirely (soft pity active)

Time Investment:

• F2P: 6-7 weeks full accumulation
• Monthly card only: 4-5 weeks
• Monthly + Battle Pass: 3-4 weeks

Alternative Strategies

Spark Shop: 300 pulls for direct selection. Costs 48,000 Jade. No practical benefit for 4-stars (still subject to 50/50 mechanics).

Standard Banner: Tingyun in permanent pool. Zero limited resources but no timing control. Expect 6-12+ months for specific 4-star through Standard Warp.

Future Rate-Ups: Tingyun returns every 3-6 months typically. Wait for better 5-star pairings if current banner doesn't justify pulling.

Free Selectors: 2-3 events yearly during celebrations/anniversaries. May include Tingyun. Wait 2-4 months for next selector if patient.

Budget Planning Phase III

F2P Income (15 days):

• Daily missions: 900 Jade (60 × 15)
• Events: 450-600 Jade
• Exploration: 300-400 Jade
• Compensation: 350-500 Jade
• Total: 2,000-2,500 Jade (12-15 pulls)

Monthly Card: +1,350 Jade during Phase III (90 Shards daily × 15 days). Doubles daily income vs F2P.

Battle Pass: ~680 Jade + 4-8 Special Passes at level 50 = 1,300-2,000 total pull value.

Decision Framework

Hard Pull Limits:

• Low pity (0-40): Max 20-30 pulls for 4-star chasing
• Mid pity (41-65): Max 10-20 pulls
• High pity (66+): Zero pulls unless accepting featured 5-star

Write limit before pulling. Stop when reached regardless of results.

Sunk Cost Trap: Past pulls don't improve future odds beyond existing guarantees. Each decision evaluates only forward-looking value.

Priority Hierarchy:

1. New 5-stars filling team gaps
2. Signature Light Cones for 5-star DPS
3. New 4-stars at E0
4. 5-star eidolons
5. 4-star eidolons ← Tingyun constellations here
6. Support Light Cones

Account Stage:

• Early (TL 1-40): Roster expansion over eidolons
• Mid (41-60): Meta 5-stars + signatures
• Late (61+): Established rosters only consider eidolons
• Endgame: Excess resources may justify 4-star cons (still questionable efficiency)

Common Mistakes

4-Stars Are Easy: Conflates any 4-star (frequent) with specific 4-star (60+ pulls realistic). Three-way rate-up dramatically reduces individual target rates.

Ignoring Pity: Check before pulling (Warp > View Details > Records). At 70+ pulls, soft pity makes 5-star highly probable.

No Stopping Point:Pull until I get her mentality exhausts resources. Set absolute limits before first pull.

Artificial Urgency: Permanent pool characters like Tingyun available indefinitely. Limited 5-stars deserve urgency, not permanent 4-stars.

Maximizing Efficiency

Safe Top-Ups: BitTopup offers competitive Oneiric Shard pricing, instant delivery, secure payments. Verify HTTPS encryption, clear refund policies, user reviews.

First-Time Bonuses: Each tier doubles yield once. Purchase highest comfortable tier first for max absolute value. Bonuses reset independently per tier.

Monthly Card vs Direct: Monthly card = ~540 Jade per dollar (2,700 over 30 days for ~$5). Far exceeds direct Oneiric Shard efficiency even with first-time bonuses. Prioritize monthly card for routine accumulation; direct purchases for immediate banner needs only.

FAQ

How many pulls guarantee specific 4-star? No absolute guarantee exists. Realistic expectation: 40-70 pulls for 50-75% probability. 20-pull featured guarantee still gives 33.3% chance among three rate-ups.

Actual featured 4-star drop rate? ~0.85% per pull for specific featured 4-star (5.1% × 50% × 33.3%). 10-pull and 20-pull guarantees modify effective rate.

Worth chasing Tingyun constellations? No for most players. E0 = 85-90% total value. Eidolons = 5-8% per copy. 60+ pulls for marginal gains = poor efficiency vs saving for 5-stars.

How does 4-star pity work? Guaranteed 4-star every 10 pulls. Resets on any 4-star. 50% chance featured when pulled. Lose 50/50? Next 4-star within 20 pulls guaranteed featured (still random among three).

When stop pulling for 4-star cons? Stop at 66+ pulls toward 5-star if don't want featured 5-star. Stop after predetermined limit (20-30 max recommended). Stop if obtain target before limit—additional eidolons rarely justify cost.

Stellar Jade for 60 pulls? 9,600 Jade (160 × 60). One month F2P income or 3-4 weeks with monthly card.

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