January 2026 Magic Wheel Overview
Magic Wheel's biggest transformation launches January 1, 2026, via Project Reforge. Crystals of Aurora eliminated, replaced by streamlined Progress Points for transparent tracking.
Dual-currency model: Diamonds for draws, Progress Points for guaranteed rewards. Each draw grants 1 Progress Point automatically, creating deterministic path alongside RNG. Addresses pure RNG dependency while maintaining early acquisition excitement.
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Event Duration
Launches January 1, 2026. Runs 30-45 days based on historical patterns. Official end date via in-game notifications.
Compensation at launch: Existing Legend Skin trail owners get 15 Magic Potions each. Limited Legend skin trail holders get 500 Diamonds per trail. Trail Effects now unlock for all players regardless of skin ownership.
Magic Wheel Shop revamps simultaneously with updated exchanges, removing outdated currencies.
Key Changes
Progress Point System: Every draw = tangible advancement toward guaranteed Legend skin. 200 draws absolutely guarantee Arcane Star Core.
Currency Conversion: Unused Magic Cores convert 1:1 to Progress Points automatically. No manual action needed.
Exquisite Collection: First draw 25 Diamonds (50% off). First 10x draws 350 Diamonds (30% off). 10x guarantees special skin in first batch.
Reward Pool
Eight prize tiers with published rates:
- Arcane Star Core: 0.05%
- Lucky Golden Egg Recall Effect: 0.15%
- Irithel Ice Spike: 0.40%
- Roger Raging Hunter: 0.40%
- Selection Chest: 1.00%
- Lucky Ticket ×3: 10.00%
- New Arrival Token ×3: 10.00%
- Hero Fragment ×10: 10.00%
- Premium Skin Fragment ×10: 10.00%
- Rare Skin Fragment ×10: 10.00%
- Interactive Effect Choice Pack ×5: 12.00%
Remaining 36.00% = additional consumables and minor rewards.
Saber Codename Storm Skin
Legend tier classification. Unlocks exclusive Trail Effects, Custom Actions, Profile Borders. Futuristic military aesthetics with storm-themed visuals. Enhanced particles, unique sounds, model modifications.
Collection Value
Legend skins maintain value through exclusivity and limited windows. January 2026 Magic Wheel = primary acquisition method. No confirmed alternative purchase paths.
Trail Effects now accessible to all players, but skin remains exclusive to event participants. Maintains core collection value while reducing FOMO pressure.
For Saber mains and collectors: long-term account investment. 10,800 Diamond average cost = premium but attainable.
Odds and Probability Math
0.05% Arcane Star Core rate = 1-in-2,000 chance per draw. Constant probability across all draws, true RNG without streak manipulation. Each draw = independent event.
200 draws = ~9.52% chance of random Arcane Star Core. Formula: 1 - (0.9995)^n.
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Pity System
Progress Points = deterministic pity. 200 points guarantee 1 Arcane Star Core for Saber Codename Storm. Hard cap: no player exceeds 200 draws (12,000 Diamonds standard pricing).
Each draw = exactly 1 Progress Point. Linear advancement. Transparent display tracks proximity to guaranteed rewards.
Pity persists throughout event but resets at conclusion. Unused Progress Points don't carry forward—complete within active window.
Drop Rates
Published rates sum to 64.00% across specified items. Remaining 36.00% = unspecified minor rewards. Common consumables (tickets, tokens, fragments) = 60.00% combined probability.
Selection Chest (1.00%) = player choice among predetermined options. Appears ~once per 100 draws statistically.
Premium rewards (Irithel, Roger, Recall Effect) = 0.95% total. Rare but more attainable than grand prize.
Shards Math
January 2026 eliminates shard-to-crystal conversion. Progress Point accumulation model: each draw grants 1 Progress Point automatically.
Unused Magic Cores convert 1:1 to Progress Points automatically. 50 unused Magic Cores = 50 Progress Points toward 200 required.
Alternative Acquisition
Premium Supply Diamond spending milestones:
- 100 Diamonds: 1 Draw Token
- 250 Diamonds: 2 Draw Tokens
- 500 Diamonds: 3 Draw Tokens
- Starlight purchase: 3 Draw Tokens
Cap: 9 Draw Tokens max per event. Tokens function identically to Diamond draws—contribute Progress Points, identical drop rates. Reduces net costs through planned Diamond expenditures.
Leftover Management
Progress Points expire at event end. Approaching 200-point threshold? Commit to completion—partial progress = zero post-event value.
Significantly below pity with limited budget? Redirect resources to guaranteed-value purchases.
Compensation Magic Potions (15 per owned Legend trail) carry forward to future events.
Diamond Cost Analysis
Two pricing models: 60 Diamonds per draw, 270 Diamonds per 5x (54 Diamonds each). 5x = 10% discount, optimal for multiple draws.
Best Case: Lucky First Pull
Minimum: 60 Diamonds single draw. 0.05% probability = ~1 in 2,000 players.
Exquisite Collection: 25 Diamonds first draw. Guaranteed special skin in first 10x (350 Diamonds discounted) = superior value for any premium skin vs. specifically targeting Saber.
Average Cost
Documented average: 10,800 Diamonds. Accounts for random drops before 200-draw pity. Most players obtain Arcane Star Core between draws 180-200.
5x pricing: 200 Progress Points = 40 purchases × 270 Diamonds = 10,800 Diamonds. Assumes zero random drops (90.48% of players).
Worst Case: Guaranteed Pity
Maximum: 200 draws standard = 12,000 Diamonds (200 × 60). Using 5x discount = 10,800 Diamonds (40 × 270). 5x mathematically superior always.
Pity caps costs, preventing extreme expenditures. Allows precise budgeting, eliminates uncertainty.
F2P Considerations
F2P accumulates 300-500 Diamonds monthly. Reaching 10,800 requires 22-36 months dedicated saving.
Premium Supply's 9 tokens reduce net costs by 540 Diamonds (9 × 60) = effective 10,260 Diamonds. Time participation around Diamond-rewarding events.
Optimal Pull Timing
RNG operates independently of temporal factors. Server time, day, event phase don't influence rates. 0.05% constant across all draws.
Early vs Late Event
Early: Maximum time for Premium Supply token accumulation. Draw immediately, continue earning tokens throughout duration = potential 540 Diamond reduction.
Late: Observe community data, confirm published rates. Risks missing event window.
Progress Points persist throughout event = flexible pacing. Spread draws across sessions without losing progress.
Batch vs Single Pulls
5x discount makes batch pulling superior. 270 Diamonds for 5 draws (54 each) vs. 300 for 5 singles (60 each) = 30 Diamond savings per batch.
Over 200 draws: 1,200 Diamonds saved (40 batches × 30) = 11.11% cost reduction. Single draws inefficient except for exactly 60 Diamonds remaining.
Batch reduces transaction time, streamlines process.
Timing Myths Debunked
Lucky hours tied to server reset = no mechanical basis. RNG generates results server-side using cryptographic randomization independent of client timing.
Account age, spending history, player ID don't influence rates. Published probabilities apply uniformly.
Only timing consideration: Premium Supply token accumulation rewards earlier participation.
Step-by-Step Guide
Pre-Event Prep
- Calculate total budget: available Diamonds + max expenditure
- Claim compensations: Inbox (main menu top-right) for Legend Skin Trail Effects Compensation
- Verify automatic Magic Core conversion
- Plan Premium Supply strategy: identify upcoming Diamond expenditures
- Set spending limit: hard cap prevents overruns
Resource Timeline
Begin Diamond accumulation 30-60 days before January 1, 2026 for 10,800 threshold. Daily tasks, weekly achievements, events = steady income.
Prioritize Diamond-rewarding activities. Avoid non-essential cosmetics.
Monitor Premium Supply, time expenditures to maximize tokens before event end.
Execution
- Verify drop rates match published
- Use 5x draws exclusively for 10% discount
- Track Progress Points toward 200
- Claim Premium Supply tokens before expiration
- Decide continuation: pursue full pity or stop based on budget
Post-Event
Progress Points expire at conclusion. Approaching pity? Commit final resources before deadline to avoid total loss.
Unused Magic Potions carry forward, maintain value. Exchange for minor rewards in revamped Shop.
Myths Debunked
Myth: Server Time Affects Rates
RNG operates continuously without time modulation. 0.05% constant at all times. No lucky hours.
Confirmation bias: players remember successful draws at specific times, forget failures. Statistical analysis shows uniform distribution.
Myth: Account Age Influences Odds
New, veteran, returning accounts = identical rates. No account-specific adjustments based on creation date, playtime, activity.
0.05% applies universally across all player segments.
Myth: Previous Pulls Impact Future
Each draw = independent event with reset probabilities. 10 consecutive commons don't increase premium likelihood on 11th. No hot streak or due for win mechanics beyond explicit Progress Point pity.
0.05% applies identically to draw 1, 100, 199. Only Progress Points create deterministic advancement.
RNG Manipulation Claims
RNG operates server-side using cryptographic algorithms preventing client manipulation. Player actions, devices, connections, interface don't influence outcomes.
Button patterns, timing intervals, rituals = no mechanical foundation. Server generates results before client animations display.
Diamond Optimization with BitTopup
Strategic acquisition impacts net costs. BitTopup: competitive pricing, instant delivery, secure transactions.
Best Packages
10,800 Diamond average aligns with mid-tier to large packages. Single large package = better per-Diamond pricing than multiple small transactions.
BitTopup: transparent pricing, no hidden fees. Instant delivery for time-sensitive participation.
Cost-Per-Spin Optimization
BitTopup pricing + 5x discount (270 for 5) = maximum efficiency. 10% draw discount stacks with favorable purchase rates, compounding savings.
Premium Supply tokens reduce effective costs by 540 Diamonds max. Plan expenditures to maximize token generation.
When to Top-Up
Pre-event allows immediate participation, maximum token accumulation time. Purchase before January 1, 2026 for launch-day readiness.
BitTopup 24/7 availability, instant delivery eliminate timing concerns.
Magic Wheel vs Other Systems
vs Lucky Box
Lucky Box: lower individual costs (40-50 Diamonds) but no pity. Higher variance—some cheap, others exceed Magic Wheel without guarantee.
Magic Wheel's 200-draw cap = cost certainty. For budget predictability, deterministic path superior despite higher average.
vs Zodiac Summon
Zodiac: token accumulation, guaranteed thresholds. Token acquisition (events, tasks, purchases) differs from Magic Wheel's direct draws.
Zodiac requires longer time investment through daily engagement. Magic Wheel allows immediate completion with sufficient Diamonds.
Best ROI
Varies by individual valuation. Magic Wheel Legend tier (Saber) = premium for collectors and mains.
For any premium skin without preference: Exquisite Collection's guaranteed special in first 10x (350 discounted) = superior value per Diamond.
Player Pull Data
Sample 1: F2P Budget
2,000 Diamonds + 9 Premium tokens:
- 9 tokens: 9 Progress Points, 540 saved
- 2,000 Diamonds: 7 batches 5x (1,890 Diamonds, 35 draws)
- Total: 44/200 Progress Points
- Arcane Star Core: 2.19% cumulative probability
Yields consolation prizes but far from pity. Accept incomplete or commit additional resources.
Sample 2: Moderate Spender
6,000 Diamonds + 9 tokens:
- 9 tokens: 9 Progress Points
- 6,000 Diamonds: 22 batches 5x (5,940 Diamonds, 110 draws)
- Total: 119/200
- Arcane Star Core: 5.64% probability
Mid-range investment, substantial progress. Decision point: invest 4,860 more for guarantee or accept partial.
Sample 3: Guaranteed Completion
10,800 Diamonds budgeted:
- 9 Premium tokens: 9 Progress Points, 540 saved
- 10,260 Diamonds: 38 batches 5x (10,260 Diamonds, 190 draws)
- Total: 199 draws
- Final: single 60 Diamond for 200th point
- Arcane Star Core: 100% guaranteed
Ensures acquisition regardless of RNG. Receives Saber + all consolation prizes across 200 draws.
Takeaways
10,800 = realistic target for guarantee. Below this? Prepare for incomplete or plan additional acquisition.
Premium Supply 540 value = meaningful reduction. Maximize token generation through normal gameplay.
Partial participation yields consolation but rarely grand prize without approaching pity. 0.05% makes random acquisition improbable under 100 draws.
FAQ
Exact odds for Saber Codename Storm?
Arcane Star Core: 0.05% per draw (1-in-2,000). Progress Point system guarantees after exactly 200 draws regardless of RNG.
Diamonds needed for guarantee?
10,800 using 5x discount (40 × 270). With 9 Premium tokens: 10,260. Single draws: 12,000 (inefficient).
Best time to pull?
No lucky hours—RNG independent of timing. Early participation maximizes Premium Supply token accumulation. Launches January 1, 2026, runs 30-45 days.
How does conversion work?
No traditional conversion. Each draw = 1 Progress Point automatically. 200 points = 1 Arcane Star Core. Unused Magic Cores convert 1:1 automatically.
Is Saber worth the cost?
10,800 average = premium investment for Saber mains/collectors. Legend tier includes exclusive Trail Effects, Custom Actions, Profile Borders. Limited-time creates scarcity. Worth depends on personal budget and priorities.
What happens to leftover shards?
Progress Points expire at event end, no carryover. Commit to pity or accept partial before deadline. Unused Magic Potions carry forward to future events.
