Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games). V4.6 "Midnight Hunters" key visual.
The conclusion first: PUBG Mobile is not dying. September's "crash" (AppMagic: $55.2M, −50% month on month, #10 worldwide) was a return to June's level in the month the Naruto collab ended. It was not a collapse. KRAFTON's own books show mobile revenue up 20.2% year on year in H1 2026, and the game's World Cup just drew its biggest esports audience in five years. Over the past year, though, PUBG Mobile's revenue has come to track its IP-collab calendar. In September, the first month after a big collab, it earned roughly what Delta Force did. That dependence is the real story, along with KRAFTON's own shift away from mobile and a player base that complains more about fair matches than about prices.
TL;DR
- September's −50% is a calendar effect. AppMagic's net estimate went from ~$62M (June) to ~$100M (July) and $109.9M (August) during the Naruto/Spider-Man window, then back to $55.2M once Naruto ended on 7 September.
- The company numbers are healthy. KRAFTON mobile revenue hit a record KRW 702.7bn in 1Q26 (+32.0% YoY) and KRW 1,153.7bn in H1 (+20.2%). Paying users rose in FY2025 (PUBG Mobile +5%, BGMI +27%) and BGMI rose again in 1Q26 (+17%).
- Esports is at a five-year high. The PUBG Mobile World Cup 2026 peaked at ~1.79M viewers, +29% on 2025.
- The real risks: (1) in a month without a big collab (September), Delta Force (~$51M) is close behind; (2) mobile fell to 35% of KRAFTON revenue in 2Q26, and PC revenue overtook it; (3) trust in fair matches: bots, queues and cheating, plus very few substantive official replies.
- The week to watch is 10–12 November: KRAFTON Q3 results (10 Nov, 15:00 Asia/Shanghai), the end of 4.6, the 4.7 launch (12 Nov), then PUBG MOBILE FLASH (mid-November) and PMGC in Istanbul.
The September "crash" in one chart
Every autumn brings the same headline. This year's source is AppMagic's September chart, where PUBG Mobile dropped to #10 with an estimated $55.2M, −50% MoM (GameDevReports/AppMagic; Mobilegamer.biz). Sensor Tower's September top 10 by revenue doesn't include PUBG Mobile at all (Sensor Tower).
Plot the year as a calendar instead of a league table and the picture changes. As far as we can find, nobody else has published this chart:
Chart 1 (original). Data: KRAFTON IR, AppMagic (estimates) | Chart: original. The gross and net AppMagic series use different bases and aren't directly comparable (see "Which numbers to trust").
Three things stand out:
- Peaks line up with tier-1 IP. The aespa window (Google Trends interest for aespa-related queries rose +750% around 15 January, per ASOtools) and the Lunar New Year/Valentine's/Ferrari events lifted Jan–Feb. The Naruto window (v4.5, 9 Jul–7 Sep) lifted Jul–Aug.
- The September low is a June low. Net revenue was "just" ~$62M in June (Mobilegamer.biz) and $55.2M in September, about 11% lower (our calculation; June is approximate).
- The swing is now about 2×. August to September is a 49.8% fall. June to August is about +77% (our calculation from AppMagic estimates).
The collab-calendar machine, month by month
| Month | AppMagic estimate | What was live | Source |
|---|
| Oct 2025 | $60.2M gross, worst month since April 2019 | Before v4.1 (launched 6 Nov) | PocketGamer.biz |
| Dec 2025 | $76.1M gross | v4.1 "Frosty Funland" (from 6 Nov) | same |
| Jan 2026 | $147M gross (+93.2%), the world's most lucrative shooter | v4.2 (7 Jan), aespa collab | same |
| Feb 2026 | $118.2M net (#3) / $184.9M gross | Lunar New Year, Valentine's Day and "Ferrari-related events" | GameDevReports; PocketGamer.biz; Mobilegamer.biz |
| Mar 2026 | $110.3M net (#4) | v4.3 (12 Mar), 8th anniversary; Jujutsu Kaisen, OneRepublic, MrBeast collabs | GamingonPhone |
| Apr 2026 | $92.5M net (#6) | v4.3 cycle; Ancient Secret: Arise mode returned | GamingonPhone |
| May 2026 | n/a, #7, "similar" to April | v4.4 "Hero's Crown" (Greek myth, no tier-1 IP) | Mobilegamer.biz |
| Jun 2026 | ~$62M net | Late v4.4; Dinoground mode returned | Mobilegamer.biz |
| Jul 2026 | ~$100M net (#4) | v4.5 NARUTO (9 Jul), Ferrari checkpoint, Spider-Man mode from 30 Jul | same |
| Aug 2026 | $109.9M net (#3) | Naruto + Spider-Man | Mobilegamer.biz |
| Sep 2026 | $55.2M net (#10) | Naruto ends 7 Sep; v4.6 (9 Sep) with Lincoln (10 Sep) and One-Punch Man (20 Sep) | GameDevReports |
Version dates and collab content are from the official v4.5 announcement and the Level Infinite v4.6 press release. The v4.5 link is a third-party page that reproduces the official notice word for word.
Even the bad months fit the pattern. Niko Partners' Daniel Ahmad told PocketGamer.biz that Peacekeeper Elite revenue sees "spikes primarily driven by in-game updates and events", and pointed to a similar decline followed by a recovery in December 2024.
Not all collabs are equal
The table also shows something the "falling" headlines miss. September wasn't empty. It had a car brand (Lincoln, from 10 Sep), an anime (One-Punch Man, 20 Sep–19 Oct outside mainland China), B.Duck from 2 Oct and the returning Ocean Odyssey mode from 30 Sep (v4.6 PR; One-Punch Man official site). Revenue still halved.
Our reading (analysis): only tier-1 IP with a long, mechanic-heavy window moves the needle. Naruto ran for two months and came with seven Ninjutsu, a raid boss and voice-cast skills. That is why KRAFTON says its H2 plan is to expand into "global animation IP" (KRAFTON Q2 2026), with anime projects tied to its ADK acquisition "in the works" (Q2 call transcript).
GIF from the official PUBG MOBILE x Lincoln trailer. Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games).
Official trailer: PUBG MOBILE x Lincoln (uploaded 3 Sep 2026).
Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games). Still from the One-Punch Man collaboration trailer.
GIF from the official One-Punch Man collaboration trailer. Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games).
Official trailer: PUBG MOBILE x One-Punch Man (uploaded 21 Sep 2026). September had this collab and still halved, which is the point.
What KRAFTON's books say
App trackers estimate store spending. KRAFTON reports what it actually books, and its numbers don't describe a game in decline.
| Quarter | KRAFTON mobile revenue (KRW bn) | YoY | Mobile share of total |
|---|
| 4Q25 | 292.2 | −19.3% | 31.8% |
| 1Q26 | 702.7 (record) | +32.0% | 51.2% |
| 2Q26 | 451.0 | +5.5% | 35.0% |
| 3Q26 E | 496.7 (Hana Securities estimate) | +1.7% E | 46.2% E |
Sources: KRAFTON 4Q25 release, KRAFTON 1Q26, KRAFTON 2Q26, Hana via 4th.kr. Shares and YoY are our calculations from reported figures.
Chart 2. Data: KRAFTON IR; 3Q26E = Hana Securities estimate | Chart: original.
The quarterly bars repeat the monthly pattern. The trough in 4Q25 (−19.3% YoY) matches AppMagic's October 2025 low. The record 1Q26 matches the Jan–Feb collab run, and KRAFTON says the Apollo Automobil collab drove high-spender demand that quarter (1Q26). In other words, the company's own results move with the same calendar.
Other company figures point the same way:
- H1 2026 mobile revenue: KRW 1,153.7bn, +20.2% YoY, about US$810M by Mobilegamer.biz's conversion.
- Paying users: FY2025 PUBG Mobile +5%, BGMI +27% (KRAFTON FY2025); BGMI +17% in 1Q26 (1Q26).
- A single-day revenue record for a new X-Suit in 2Q26, per the CFO (Q2 call transcript; the suit's name is garbled in the transcript).
- Sensor Tower H1 2026: PUBG Mobile #5 worldwide with $676M, about 10% of the top 10's combined revenue (AWN China).
- China: Tencent reported lifetime-high quarterly gross receipts for Peacekeeper Elite in 1Q26 (Tencent). App2top reports more than 90M DAU on a Ferrari collab, a figure that likely comes from the earnings call rather than the press release.
The esports counter-signal: a five-year high
"Dying" games don't usually set audience records. The PUBG Mobile World Cup at EWC 2026 (Paris) peaked at ~1.79M concurrent viewers. Esports Charts' figure is reported as 1,791,979, with variants of 1,791,895 and ~1.78M. That is the highest since 2021 and the second-highest ever, with 29.57M hours watched (Esports Charts; 16score).
Chart 3 (original). Data: Esports Charts (via excerpts and secondary reports) | Chart: original.
Our calculations from those figures:
- PMWC peak: 564.8K (2024) → 1.389M (2025) → 1.792M (2026). That is ×3.17 in two years, and +29.0% in the latest year. A secondary report using the preliminary 1.78M figure puts it at +28%.
- The mid-season World Cup now out-draws the world championship: PMWC 2026 peaked 37.7% above PMGC 2025 (1.30M).
- Caveat: Facebook promo streams passed 785K concurrent viewers, and it is unresolved whether they sit inside the headline peak. Some of the record reflects distribution, not just demand.
Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games); PUBG MOBILE Esports / Esports World Cup. S2G Esports won PMWC 2026 with 154 points (Level Infinite).
GIF from the official PMWC at EWC 26 aftermovie. Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games); PUBG MOBILE Esports / Esports World Cup.
Official: "Moments That Made It | PMWC at EWC 26" (PUBG MOBILE Esports, 17 Aug 2026).
Which numbers to trust (methodology)
| Source | What it measures | Feb 2026 PUBG Mobile | Watch out for |
|---|
| AppMagic (net) via GameDevReports / Mobilegamer.biz | App Store + Google Play IAP, after store fees and taxes | $118.2M | Excludes China Android, webshops and ads. The "PUBG MOBILE" entry appears to include China iOS (Peacekeeper Elite) |
| AppMagic (gross) via PocketGamer.biz | Same stores, before store fees | $184.9M | Different basis. Never mix it with net in one series |
| Sensor Tower | Store IAP, its own model | ≈$133M | Different model from AppMagic. Use it for rankings, not exact dollars |
| KRAFTON IR | Revenue KRAFTON books | Quarterly only | Includes BGMI and Peacekeeper Elite technology-service fees, but only KRAFTON's share of Tencent-published PUBG Mobile |
- Net vs gross: in February, net was 63.9% of gross (our calculation). PocketGamer.biz's January figure ($147M) is gross, so it can't be compared directly with GameDevReports' February net figure ("best since August 2025").
- MAU: there is no official 2026 PUBG Mobile MAU. Published estimates range from 33M to 176M (Udonis, ActivePlayer, SportsDigest). A fivefold spread is not data. We don't use any of them.
- Treat every tracker figure as an estimate and as directional. Sources: GameDevReports, PocketGamer.biz, AWN China / Sensor Tower.
The real risks (and they're not "dying")
Risk 1: In a month without a collab, Delta Force draws level
In September, AppMagic had PUBG Mobile at $55.2M and Tencent's own Delta Force at $51M (#11), a gap of about 8%. In August, with Naruto running, PUBG Mobile was 2.15× Delta Force ($109.9M vs $51.1M) (Mobilegamer.biz; ratios are our calculations). In May, Delta Force posted $57.2M while PUBG Mobile was described only as "similar" to April's $92.5M (Mobilegamer.biz), so the gap varies a lot from month to month.
| Shooter signal | PUBG Mobile | Rival |
|---|
| AppMagic, Sep 2026 (net) | $55.2M (#10) | Delta Force $51M (#11); Free Fire MAX $31M (#20) |
| AppMagic, 2025 full year (gross) | ≈$1.6bn, #1 shooter | Delta Force $492.5M (#3 shooter) |
| Company-reported 2Q26 | KRAFTON mobile KRW 451.0bn | Garena bookings $763.5M (+15.5%); Free Fire >100M avg DAU |
Sources: GameDevReports, PocketGamer.biz 2025, Sea Ltd 2Q26. The KRAFTON and Garena figures aren't like-for-like, because KRAFTON books only its share of PUBG Mobile.
Inside Tencent the signal is sharper. Its 2Q26 domestic games growth (+17%) was credited to Delta Force, VALORANT and Roco Kingdom, and Delta Force hit a lifetime-high DAU. Peacekeeper Elite isn't named as a driver (Tencent 2Q26). PUBG Mobile still has a high ceiling. Its floor is now within reach of another Tencent shooter.
Risk 2: Mobile is shrinking inside KRAFTON
Mobile made up roughly 60–70% of KRAFTON revenue in 2024 (58.6%–70.7% by quarter). By 2Q26 it was 35.0%. That quarter, PC revenue (KRW 560.4bn) exceeded mobile (KRW 451.0bn) for the quarter, helped by Subnautica 2 (5M units in 22 days) and the consolidated ADK Group (KRAFTON 2Q26).
Chart 4. Data: KRAFTON IR | Chart: original.
Mobile is still growing, so this is not a decline. It is a priority risk. Hana Securities cut its KRAFTON target price from KRW 460k to 340k (−26.1%) ahead of Q3 (4th.kr), and KRAFTON's new PUBG title, PUBG: DED.NET, is a PC FPS (KRAFTON gamescom). The mobile team has to keep earning its share of attention with collabs.
Risk 3: Trust in fair matches
This is the risk the "dying" pieces never measure. We hand-coded the top 100 posts of the month on r/PUBGMobile and r/BGMI (to 21 Oct 2026, one primary category per post; Reddit's RSS feed has no upvote counts). On r/PUBGMobile, fairness, tech and matchmaking posts outnumber monetization posts 21 to 12. On r/BGMI the two are roughly even (13 vs 14). India's monetization count is inflated by a new lobby-ad row, and cheating/bans posts (9) are three times the global count.
Chart 5 (original). Data: original hand-coding of Reddit top-of-month feeds; glotier.com analysis of 900 reviews | Chart: original.
Store reviews tell the same story more starkly. An independent read of 900 App Store and Google Play reviews (5 Jul 2026) found crashes/lag 11%, "rigged" matches 8%, hackers 7% and account theft 6% of negative reviews, against ~1% each for pay-to-win and greed (glotier).
Three fairness problems recur:
- Bots and queues depend on server and mode. In one r/PUBGMobile thread a player wrote "Most I ever queued for was 30 min, least I ever got was 30 sec. NA. Solo TPP". Another replied "30sec with 80% bots yeah", while an EU player gets in "well under a minute" (r/PUBGMobile).
- Cheating and exploits. In 4.6 a Twilight Bat Wings bug let players use firearms after the wings. The official Japanese tracker logged a fix on 21 Sep (pubgmobile.jp). In India, KRAFTON penalised 452,454 cheating-related accounts in August and issued 10-year bans to ~60,000 accounts on 21 Sep. KRAFTON says those bans were for PAK-file modification and VM cheating, not the glitch (GamingKhabar summary).
- Silence. In 18 sampled r/PUBGMobile complaint threads, the dev-side account gave a substantive reply in 3. Six got only the template "You may submit a bug report…". That includes threads about server routing, which a bug report can't fix. In 8 sampled r/BGMI threads there were 0 official replies. When an answer does come it matters: "This will expire with version 4.6." That reply on Card Collection tokens came 8 days after the question was asked (r/PUBGMobile).
Analysis: collabs bring players back for a few weeks. Whether those players spend again depends on fair lobbies, and fair lobbies are where trust is thinnest.
The week that tests the thesis: 10–12 November
All times are Asia/Shanghai (UTC+8) unless noted.
| Date | Event | Status | Source |
|---|
| 24–25 Oct | PMGO 2026 S2 Grand Finals, Lahore ($500K; the winner gets 150 PMGC points) | Confirmed | 4Thrives |
| 10 Nov, 15:00 (16:00 KST) | KRAFTON Q3 2026 results | Confirmed | TipRanks |
| 10 Nov | v4.6 content window ends; Card Collection tokens expire with 4.6 | Official notice | v4.6 announcement |
| 12 Nov | v4.7 global release (Norse/"Frost" theme, Ancient Beast) | Official @PUBGMOBILE post | DearPlayers mirror |
| Mid-Nov | PUBG MOBILE FLASH launch | Official, no exact date | PocketGamer.biz |
| Nov–Dec | PMGC 2026, Istanbul ($3M) | Official city; third-party sites list 24 Nov–14 Dec, unconfirmed | esports.pubgmobile.com; esportsverse |
KRAFTON Q3: what to read
Hana Securities expects 3Q26 mobile revenue of KRW 496.7bn. That is an estimate: +10.1% QoQ and +1.7% YoY. Hana credits the Naruto, vehicle and Spider-Man collabs, plus a Chinese-animation collab (4th.kr). Street operating-profit estimates range from KRW 244.2bn (Hana) to 300.2bn (NH) (Investing.com KR). If Hana is right, nine-month mobile revenue would be +13.9% YoY (our calculation).
Official: PUBG MOBILE × Spider-Man: Brand New Day (31 Jul 2026), one of the collabs analysts credit for Q3.
v4.7 beta: what changed from Beta 1 to Beta 3
Everything below is beta content and subject to change. The official notes say beta content "is not representative of the final version."
| Feature | Beta 1 (23 Sep–9 Oct) | Beta 2 (10–14 Oct) | Beta 3 (15–22 Oct) | Beta 4 (23–25 Oct, teased) |
|---|
| Healing | Med Kit, Adrenaline, Painkillers lighter; bandages heal more, faster; front-loaded healing | — | — | — |
| Battle Ready Kit (Erangel, full Health + Energy) | New | — | — | — |
| Staged reload | New | — | — | — |
| Canted Foregrip (Classic) | — | New | — | — |
| Glyph passive skills (6 types, Lv 1–3) + Glyph Altars | — | New (themed mode) | Power Feathers raise odds of high-level Glyphs | — |
| Aurora Flashstep / Aurora Pegasus mount | — | New | Pegasus tied to the Hero's Medal (seal the Ancient Beast) | — |
| Ancient Beast + Nordic Pochinki/Rozhok/Mansion | — | — | New; inside the beast is a no-damage shared space | — |
| Aurora Realm (second chance from spectate) | — | — | New | — |
| Winter Erangel Classic spin-off ("Erangel Subzero") | — | "Coming soon" | — | — |
| Metro Royale "Seal City" (1.8×1.8 km PvE, day/night) | — | — | New | — |
| WOW AI Smart Assistant | — | — | Generates "complex game scenes" | — |
| Cosmetics / AI NPC | — | — | — | New X-Suit and Gilt sets; AI NPC "Fanged Wolf Spirit" |
Sources: official beta notices via Beta 1, Beta 2 and Beta 3 mirrors; schedule via Sportsdunia; Beta 4 teaser via the official @PUBGMOBILE post (DearPlayers).
On the naming: the Beta 2 notes call the winter Classic spin-off "Erangel Subzero". That is the same name PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS used for its PC Update 39.1 on 4 Dec 2025, which has a similar freezing Blue Zone, crashed satellites and BZ Grenade (KRAFTON press). The mobile mode's final name, and whether it ships on 12 Nov or later, aren't confirmed.
Our reading: 4.7 is not a tier-1 IP version so far. If December revenue still rises, that would suggest the game can earn without a big licence. If it doesn't, that supports the collab-calendar thesis.
PUBG MOBILE FLASH (formerly "LIGHT")
PUBG MOBILE first showed the low-storage app as PUBG MOBILE LIGHT in a 19 Aug video, opened pre-registration on 25 Aug, and renamed it PUBG MOBILE FLASH around 8 Oct (PocketGamer.biz; official FAQ mirror). It is ~1 GB on Android and ~2 GB on iOS, downloads maps on demand, and uses the same account and items with cross-play into the main game. It is not a separate "Lite" game. In India, BGMI Lite became BGMI Air on 15 Oct with 10M+ pre-registrations (Gadgets360).
Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games). Still from the "Introducing PUBG MOBILE LIGHT" video. The app has since been renamed FLASH.
GIF from the official LIGHT (now FLASH) reveal. Image: PUBG MOBILE (© KRAFTON, Inc. / LIGHTSPEED STUDIOS, Tencent Games).
Official reveal (19 Aug 2026), published under the earlier "LIGHT" name.
What would prove this thesis wrong
A thesis is only useful if it can fail. Here is what would break ours:
- Q3 misses badly. If KRAFTON's 10 Nov mobile number lands well below Hana's KRW 496.7bn estimate even though Q3 included the Naruto peak, collabs are converting less than we think.
- No rebound after 4.7. If AppMagic's Oct–Dec estimates stay near or below Delta Force through a full new version cycle, the September floor is structural, not seasonal.
- Paying users turn negative. PUBG Mobile's FY2025 paying users rose only 5%. A decline in KRAFTON's FY2026 disclosure would be the clearest "shrinking" signal.
- The esports audience fades. If PMGC Istanbul peaks well below PMGC 2025's 1.30M, the audience boom was a one-off for the World Cup.
- On the other side, a big month with no tier-1 IP would weaken the "collab machine" half of the thesis, which would be good news for the game.
FAQ
Is PUBG Mobile dying in 2026? No, on the available data. KRAFTON's mobile revenue rose 20.2% YoY in H1 2026, with a record KRW 702.7bn in 1Q26. Sensor Tower ranked PUBG Mobile #5 worldwide in H1, and its World Cup hit a five-year viewership high (~1.79M peak). September's −50% (AppMagic estimate) followed the end of the Naruto collab.
What is PUBG Mobile's revenue in 2026? There's no single official figure for the game. KRAFTON reported KRW 1,153.7bn of mobile revenue in H1 2026, which covers PUBG Mobile, BGMI and Peacekeeper Elite fees. Sensor Tower estimated $676M of H1 store revenue. AppMagic's monthly net estimates range from about $55M (September) to $118.2M (February).
When is the PUBG Mobile 4.7 release date? 12 November 2026, per an official @PUBGMOBILE post. The 4.6 window ends on 10 November. The exact release time hadn't been announced as of 21 October.
What's new in PUBG Mobile 4.7? Beta content (subject to change) includes Glyph skills, the Aurora Pegasus mount, an Ancient Beast with Nordic Pochinki/Rozhok/Mansion, a Canted Foregrip, faster healing, and a Metro Royale PvE map called "Seal City". A winter Erangel spin-off (named "Erangel Subzero" in the notes) is marked "coming soon".
How many players does PUBG Mobile have? Nobody outside Tencent and KRAFTON knows. There's no official 2026 MAU, and third-party estimates range from 33M to 176M. The hardest public datapoint is China: Tencent reported record quarterly gross receipts for Peacekeeper Elite in 1Q26, and App2top cites more than 90M DAU.
What is PUBG MOBILE FLASH? It's a ~1 GB (Android) companion app, originally announced as "PUBG MOBILE LIGHT", that shares your account, items and matchmaking with the main game. Launch is set for mid-November 2026.
Follow BitTopup for more PUBG Mobile UC news~
