Understanding HSR 4.0 Banner System Fundamentals
Character Event Warp uses dual-pity: every pull costs 160 Stellar Jades (Oneiric Shards convert 1:1).
Pity thresholds:
- Soft pity: Pull 74 (gradually increasing 5-star probability)
- Hard pity: Pull 90 (guaranteed 5-star)
- Carries over between Character Event Warps
50/50 mechanic: First 5-star has 50% chance of being featured character. Lose = next 5-star guaranteed featured. Worst case: 180 pulls (28,800 Jades). Players planning to buy Honkai Star Rail Oneiric Shards should budget for this scenario—BitTopup's competitive pricing reduces guarantee costs.
Character vs Light Cone Event Warp Differences
Light Cone Warps: 80-pull hard pity (vs 90 for characters), soft pity at 63-75. Pity counters completely independent—character pulls don't affect Light Cone progress. Worst-case Light Cone: 12,800 Jades vs 14,400 for characters.
How Pity Works: Soft at 74, Hard at 90
Soft pity shifts probability starting pull 74. Most players hit 5-star between pulls 75-85. Check pity: Warp menu > View Details > Records tab. Count pulls since last 5-star.
Example: 65 pulls with 10,400 Jades saved = 25 from hard pity, 9 from soft pity range.
50/50 and Guarantee System
Guarantee status persists indefinitely across all Character Event Warps. Lost 50/50 last version? Still guaranteed for Yao Guang.
Budget examples:
- 45 pity + guarantee = 45 pulls needed (7,200 Jades)
- 0 pity + no guarantee = 180 pulls worst case (28,800 Jades)
- Average: 120-140 pulls with soft pity/50/50 factored
Yao Guang Banner Analysis
Duration: February 12, 2026 10:00 PM UTC-5 (Feb 13, 11:00 AM UTC+8) until March 6—22 days.
5.1% 4-star rate means consistent roster value while building to pity.
Schedule and Availability
22 days = 3 weekly resets + 1 day. Income during banner:
- Weekly missions: 675 Jades (225/week × 3)
- Daily training: 1,320 Jades (60/day × 22)
Phase 1 position lets you accumulate Jades through full version if continuing into Sparxie's banner.
Drop Rates and Probability
0.6% base rate = ~167 pulls without pity. Soft pity makes effective average 80-85 pulls per 5-star.
Dual target budget: Yao Guang + signature Light Cone = 27,200 Jades worst case (14,400 + 12,800), average 20,000-24,000 Jades.
Sparxie Banner Breakdown
Duration: March 6-26, 2026 (20-21 days, using conservative 20-day estimate).
Phase 2 positioning: Players pulling Yao Guang early can redirect remaining Jades. Skip Phase 1 = maximum accumulated resources.
Timeline and Phase Placement
March 6 transition = no gap between banners. High pity on Yao Guang? Stop pulling after March 5 to avoid wasting guarantee. For last-minute top up Stellar Jade for Yao Guang banner, BitTopup ensures fast delivery during final hours.
20-day income: 1,200 daily Jades + 450 weekly (2 cycles) + 2,000-3,000 event Jades.
First Half vs Second Half Strategy
Early pulling: Extended recovery time if continuing/pivoting to Light Cones. Phase 2 waiting: Maximizes Jade accumulation, clearest budget picture.
Optimal approach:
- 20,000+ Jades + guarantee = secure either phase character
- Fewer resources = wait until late Phase 1 to assess total earnings
Complete Pull Cost Calculation
Single pull: 160 Jades. 10-pull: 1,600 Jades (no bulk discount). Linear scaling—90 pulls = 14,400 Jades regardless of method.
Worst case: 180 pulls = 28,800 Jades (lose 50/50 at pull 90, hit hard pity again at 180). Affects 10-15% of players.
Stellar Jade and Oneiric Shard Conversion
1:1 exchange rate = functionally identical. Express Supply Pass ($4.99): 300 Oneiric Shards immediate + 90 Stellar Jades daily × 30 days = 3,000 total (18.75 pulls). Spend Oneiric Shards before buying new top-ups.
Worst-Case: 180 Pulls
28,800 Jades = first hard pity (14,400) potentially yielding standard 5-star + second hard pity (14,400) guaranteeing featured. Maintain full amount if character is non-negotiable.
Best and Average Cases
Best case: Win 50/50 during soft pity (pull 75-80) = 12,000-12,800 Jades. Occurs ~30% of time.
Average case: 120-140 pulls = ~20,000 Jades. Covers soft pity loss + guarantee within soft pity. Balances optimism with risk.
Version 4.0 Free Stellar Jade Income
F2P projections:
- Conservative (casual): 12,000-14,000 Jades
- Optimistic (full endgame): 19,500-21,310 Jades
Base income (42-day cycle):
- Daily training: 2,520 Jades (60/day)
- Weekly missions: 1,350 Jades (225/week × 6)
Planarcadia Exploration and Events
One-time rewards:
- Planarcadia exploration: 1,500-2,500 Jades
- Chrysos Awoo Championship: 1,200 Jades
- Livestream codes: 300 Jades
Event income: 3-4 major events = 3,000-4,800 Jades total (800-1,200 each). Missing one event = losing 5-8 pulls.
Daily and Weekly Rewards
60 daily Jades = 15-20 minutes gameplay. 4-5 sessions/week captures majority of income. Weekly 225 Jades auto-completes through daily missions. Missing reset = permanent 225 Jade loss.
Endgame Content Contribution
Per cycle rewards (800 Jades each):
- Memory of Chaos: 1,600 Jades (2 cycles)
- Pure Fiction: 1,600 Jades (2 cycles)
- Apocalyptic Shadow: 1,600 Jades (2 cycles)
- Divergent Universe: 1,800 Jades/cycle
Total endgame: 4,800 Jades for full clears. Partial clears still valuable—8-star Memory = 400 Jades.
F2P vs Low Spender Budget Comparison
Pure F2P:
- Conservative: 12,000-14,000 Jades = 75-87 pulls (within soft pity, short of hard pity)
- Optimistic: 19,500-21,310 Jades = 121-133 pulls (guarantees one character from zero pity)
Monthly F2P breakdown:
- Daily missions: 1,800 Jades
- Weekly missions: 900 Jades
- Memory/Pure Fiction: 1,600 Jades
- Apocalyptic Shadow: 800 Jades
- Divergent Universe: 1,800 Jades
- Total recurring: 6,900 Jades/month
- Version 4.0 first month: 8,000-10,000 Jades (with one-time rewards)
Express Supply Pass Value
$4.99 = 3,000 currency (18.75 pulls). Monthly total with Pass: ~10,000 Jades (62 pulls/month). Version 4.0 bonus: 4,200-4,500 Jades. Often the difference between reaching hard pity or falling short.
Can You Get Both Characters F2P?
Requires exceptional luck or pity carryover. 19,500-21,310 optimistic Jades = 121-133 pulls (one guarantee with average luck, insufficient for two).
Realistic dual acquisition: Enter 4.0 with 60+ pity + guarantee, win at least one 50/50. Starting from zero = prioritize one character, treat second as bonus.
Smart Banner Pulling Strategy
Check pity before 4.0: Warp > View Details > Records. Count pulls since last 5-star. Last 5-star was standard on Character Event Warp = guarantee active.
Budget by status:
- 60+ pity + guarantee = 4,800 Jades needed (30 pulls)
- Low pity + no guarantee = 28,800 Jades worst case
Avoiding Accidental Pity Breaks
70+ pity = significant 5-star risk from soft pity. Stop pulling after securing target character regardless of remaining banner time. Pity carries over indefinitely—no benefit advancing it unless prepared for 5-star.
Don't build pity on unwanted banners. Only pull where you'd accept any 5-star outcome.
Banner Priority Framework
Yao Guang: Physical Elation, optimal with Sparkle/Gallagher/Topaz or Sparkle/Fu Xuan/Evanescia. Prioritize if lacking Physical DPS.
Sparxie: Fire Elation, Punchline points via Engagement Farming. Teams: Yao Guang/Sparkle/Dan Heng or Fu Xuan defensive comps. Consider if established Fire teams or pulled Yao Guang.
E0S1 performance: Yao Guang 70-75% potential, Sparxie 60-65%. Team composition and roster gaps outweigh raw damage.
Common Mistakes
Building pity fallacy: Pulling on unwanted banners wastes guarantee when early 5-stars appear.
Ignoring separate pity: Character pulls don't affect Light Cone progress. Budget independently.
Underestimating 50/50: 50% lose and need full 180 pulls. Budget conservatively.
Maximizing Pull Budget
Herta Store: Convert Undying Starlight (from duplicate pulls) to Star Rail Passes. Adds 2-5 pulls for extensive 4-star collections.
Version update bonuses: First week login events = 5-10 free pulls + 800-1,200 Jades. Pull after claiming for maximum initial attempts.
Timing Pulls Around Updates
First 3 days: 800-1,200 Jades + free passes. Pull immediately maximizes attempts. But mid-version pulling (week 3-4) provides clearer income visibility for dual-character decisions.
Eidolon Considerations
Yao Guang E2: +12% SPD to allies, +16% to Elation in Zone. Costs 28,800 additional Jades—could secure Sparxie or Light Cones instead.
E0 provides complete functionality. Eidolons = optimization, not necessity. F2P/low-spenders: prioritize roster width over depth.
Light Cone vs Character Priority
Signature stats:
- Yao Guang When She Decided to See: HP 1058, ATK 529, DEF 529 + passive
- Sparxie Dazzled By A Flowery World: ATK 582, DEF 463, HP 1058, +36% CRIT DMG (S1), DEF ignore (5%/SP, max 4 stacks)
12,800 Jade Light Cone investment often exceeds value of second character. 4-star alternatives provide 70-80% performance. Prioritize characters first.
Tracking Pulls and Future Planning
Manual tracking via Warp History Records (last 100 pulls). Note pity count and 5-stars after each session. Prevents budget miscalculations.
Setting 4.1 Budgets
Version 4.1 launches ~6 weeks after 4.0. Early 4.0 success = 12,000-15,000 Jades saved before 4.1. Maintain 14,400 Jade emergency reserve for one guaranteed character/version.
Long-Term Gacha Strategy
Accept you can't obtain every character F2P/low-spend. Prioritize roster gaps over marginal improvements. Diverse roster (multiple damage types/supports) > heavily invested duplicates.
Track guarantee/pity as bankable resources. 70 pity + guarantee = 11,200 Jades saved, need only 3,200 more. Rewards patient, strategic skipping.
FAQ
How many pulls guarantee Yao Guang in HSR 4.0? Up to 180 pulls (28,800 Jades) worst case—90 for potential 50/50 loss, 90 for guarantee. Existing guarantee = 90 pulls max.
What is HSR pity system? Guarantees 5-star within 90 pulls (Character Event Warp), soft pity from pull 74. Carries over between same-type warps. 50/50 = 50% featured character, next guaranteed if lost.
Does pity carry over between 4.0 banners? Yes between Character Event Warps (Yao Guang → Sparxie). Separate for Light Cone and Departure Warps.
How many Stellar Jades can F2P get in 4.0? 12,000-21,310 depending on completion. Casual: 12,000-14,000 (75-87 pulls). Dedicated: 19,500-21,310 (121-133 pulls).
Yao Guang or Sparxie priority? Yao Guang: 70-75% E0S1 potential, Physical DPS with Sparkle/Gallagher/Topaz. Sparxie: 60-65% potential, Fire teams, synergizes with Yao Guang. Choose based on roster gaps.
How to calculate current pity? Warp > View Details > Records. Count pulls since last 5-star. Standard character on Character Event Warp = guarantee active.
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