HSR 3.8: Light Cone vs Character Pull Guide (12,800 Jade)

**Quick Answer:** HSR 3.8 Phase 3 (Jan 28-Feb 12, 2026) presents a counterintuitive scenario where Sunday's signature light cone at 12,800 Stellar Jade hard pity delivers superior value versus 14,400 Jade character pulls. Light Cone Event Warp's 80-pull hard pity beats Character Event Warp's 90-pull requirement. Players with established rosters may find signature light cones provide better performance-per-jade ratios.

Author: BitTopup Publish at: 2026/01/25

Understanding Phase 3 Spending Landscape

Phase 3 features dual banners: Aglaea (Lightning Remembrance DPS) and Sunday (Imaginary Harmony support), plus signatures Time Woven Into Gold and A Grounded Ascent. 4-stars: Tingyun, Yukong, Dan Heng.

F2P income: 4,000-5,000 Jade total

  • Daily Training: 1,800 Jade (120 × 15 days)
  • Gift of Odyssey: 1,600 Jade + 10 Special Passes
  • Memory of Chaos: 800 Jade (full clear)
  • Pure Fiction: 800 Jade
  • Apocalyptic Shadow: 800 Jade
  • Events: 200-400 Jade

This covers 25-31 pulls—insufficient for hard pity without reserves.

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Why pressure exists: Sunday's 100% action advance mechanics fill a unique niche. A Grounded Ascent transforms his SP economy from neutral to positive—recovering 1 SP every 2 triggers. This can't be replicated by substitutes, making it a unique multiplier versus simple stat boost.

Mathematics: 12,800 vs 14,400 Jade

Light Cone Event Warp:

  • Hard pity: 80 pulls = 12,800 Jade
  • Soft pity: Starts pull 63 at 5-7% per pull
  • Base rate: 0.8%
  • Featured guarantee: 75% first 5-star, then 18.75%, then 6.25%

Character Event Warp:

  • Hard pity: 90 pulls = 14,400 Jade
  • Soft pity: Starts pull 74
  • Base rate: 0.6%
  • Featured guarantee: 50% first, 75% after losing 50/50

1,600 Jade difference = 10 pulls advantage for light cones.

Expected Value Calculations

Honkai Star Rail Phase 3 warp pity expected value comparison chart showing pulls and Jade costs for light cone vs character

Light Cone EV:

  • 75% chance: 63 pulls for featured
  • 25% chance: 126 pulls (63 + 63 for second)
  • Weighted EV: (0.75 × 63) + (0.25 × 126) = 78.75 pulls (12,600 Jade)

Character EV:

  • 50% chance: 72.5 pulls
  • 50% chance: 145 pulls (guaranteed after 50/50 loss)
  • Weighted EV: (0.5 × 72.5) + (0.5 × 145) = 108.75 pulls (17,400 Jade)

Takeaway: Light cones offer better worst-case protection (12,800 vs 14,400) but worse average-case when accounting for featured rates.

Hidden Costs

  • Eidolons: Sunday E1 costs 14,400-28,800 additional Jade for 25% DEF ignore
  • Superimposition: S2-S5 requires 320-400 total pulls (51,200-64,000 Jade)—poor value
  • Rerun timing: Sunday reruns in 6-9 months; light cone reruns less predictable (12+ months)
  • Opportunity cost: Pulling redundant supports vs addressing roster gaps

Sunday Analysis: Kit and Meta Position

Base stats (Lv80): 1,241 HP, 640 ATK, 533 DEF, 96 SPD

Core mechanics:

  • Skill: 100% action advance, +30% DMG (+50% for summons), recovers 1 SP on Beatified targets
  • Ultimate: Restores 20% Max Energy (min 40), grants CRIT DMG = 30% of Sunday's CRIT DMG +12% for 3 turns
  • Talent: +20% CRIT Rate to Skill target for 3 turns
  • Passive: +25 Energy at battle start

Best synergies:

  • Summon DPS: Aglaea, Jing Yuan, Topaz (+50% summon DMG)
  • High Energy cost DPS: 120+ Energy Ultimates benefit from 20% restoration
  • CRIT-hungry attackers: Complete CRIT stat coverage

Meta position: Excels in Memory of Chaos (single-target), adequate in Pure Fiction (AoE-focused). Current data shows 0-1 cycle clears with premium DPS.

Eidolon value: E1's 25% DEF ignore = 8-12% final damage increase. Costs 14,400-28,800 Jade—worse value than signature light cone.

Long-term value: Summon-based DPS trend continues (Aglaea is third after Jing Yuan, Topaz). Action advance remains universally valuable. Rerun expected Version 4.2-4.3 (6-9 months).

A Grounded Ascent Deep Dive

Stats (Lv80 S1): 635 ATK, 396 DEF, 12 SPD, 54% CRIT DMG

Honkai Star Rail A Grounded Ascent light cone Lv80 S1 stats screenshot

Passive: After Skill/Ultimate use:

  • Regenerates 6 Energy to target
  • Adds 1 Hymn stack (+15% DMG, max 3 = +45% total)
  • Recovers 1 SP every 2 triggers

Damage Calculations: Signature vs Best 4-Star

Best substitute: Memories of the Past (Energy Regen Rate + Break Effect)

With A Grounded Ascent:

  • Sunday CRIT DMG: 54% (cone) + 62.2% (Body) + 40% (subs) = 156%
  • Ultimate buff: (156% × 0.30) + 12% = 58.8% CRIT DMG to ally
  • Aglaea receives 6 Energy per Sunday action (18/rotation)
  • Team gains +3 SP per 6 turns (+0.5 SP/turn)
  • Hymn stacks: +45% DMG after 3 triggers

With Memories of the Past:

  • Sunday CRIT DMG: ~102% (no cone stat)
  • Ultimate buff: (102% × 0.30) + 12% = 42% CRIT DMG (16.8% less)
  • No direct Energy regen
  • SP-neutral (0 SP/rotation)
  • No additional DMG buffs

Aglaea damage comparison (2,600 ATK, 100% CRIT Rate, 120% base CRIT DMG):

A Grounded Ascent:

  • Total CRIT DMG: 120% + 58.8% = 178.8%
  • Total DMG%: 50% + 45% = 95%
  • Multiplier: (1.95) × (2.788) = 5.44

Memories of the Past:

  • Total CRIT DMG: 120% + 42% = 162%
  • Total DMG%: 50%
  • Multiplier: (1.50) × (2.62) = 3.93

Performance gap: 38.4% damage increase (excluding Energy/SP benefits = effective 45-50% total improvement)

Honkai Star Rail damage comparison Aglaea with Sunday signature light cone vs 4-star substitute

Superimposition Value

S1→S5 gains:

  • +8 SPD (12→20)
  • +36% CRIT DMG (54%→90%)
  • +2 Energy/trigger (6→8)

S5 provides ~5-6% damage improvement over S1 but costs 38,400-51,200 additional Jade. S1 = 90% of total value. Skip S2-S5.

Unique Mechanics

Three irreplaceable effects:

  1. SP recovery: Only Harmony light cone with SP regen
  2. Stacking DMG%: +45% at 3 stacks, multiplicative with kit buffs
  3. Targeted Energy regen: Flat 6 Energy/trigger, independent of hits/enemy actions

When 12,800 Beats 14,400: Case Studies

Scenario 1: Established Roster

Profile: Owns Aglaea/Jing Yuan; has 2-3 Harmony supports (Ruan Mei, Sparkle, Bronya); lacks premium light cones

Analysis: Sunday adds marginal value over existing Harmony options. Ruan Mei offers team buffs, Sparkle provides CRIT DMG + SP, Bronya grants action advance. Bottleneck is light cone quality, not character quantity.

Recommendation: Skip Sunday, invest 12,800 in A Grounded Ascent only if pulling Sunday on rerun. Otherwise save for DPS characters.

Scenario 2: Sunday Already Owned

Profile: Secured E0 Sunday early; has 12,800+ Jade remaining; no need for Aglaea

Analysis: E1 (25% DEF ignore for 14,400-28,800) vs S1 light cone (SP economy + Energy + DMG for 12,800). Light cone provides diverse benefits enabling new teams; E1 offers pure damage.

For SP-negative teams (Aglaea + summon, Jing Yuan), SP recovery solves rotation problems E1 can't fix. 38-50% damage improvement beats E1's 8-12%.

Recommendation: Invest 12,800 in A Grounded Ascent before considering E1.

Scenario 3: Light Cone Gap Bottleneck

Profile: Diverse roster but relies on 4-star cones; struggles with endgame despite meta characters

Analysis:Wide but shallow problem—many characters at low power. Adding E0 character perpetuates this. Signature light cone on universal support improves every team using that support.

Recommendation: Prioritize signature cones for Harmony/Abundance over expanding roster. 12,800 Jade investment provides better long-term value than 14,400 character pulls.

Decision Framework

Pre-Pull Checklist

Q1: Do I own Sunday?

  • Yes → Consider A Grounded Ascent over E1
  • No → Proceed to Q2

Q2: Harmony support count?

  • 0-1 → Sunday high priority
  • 2-3 → Medium priority
  • 4+ → Low priority (redundant)

Q3: Own summon DPS (Aglaea/Jing Yuan/Topaz)?

  • Yes → Sunday value increases significantly
  • No → Generic support value only

Q4: Light cone to character ratio?

  • <40% → Prioritize light cones
  • 40-60% → Case-by-case
  • 60% → Prioritize characters

Q5: Current Jade?

  • <12,800 → Can't guarantee either; consider soft pity or skip
  • 12,800-14,400 → Guarantee cone OR risk character 50/50
  • 14,400-28,800 → Guarantee character OR cone + soft pity
  • 28,800 → Can guarantee both

Q6: Top 3 priorities next 3 versions?

  • Sunday/cone in top 3 → Pull
  • Neither → Skip Phase 3

Q7: Full-clear endgame?

  • Yes → Optimization, not necessity
  • No → Identify bottleneck (DPS/support/sustain/gear)

Q8: Want vs FOMO?

  • Want → Pull
  • FOMO → Skip, reassess after 24hrs

Jade Budget Template

Current Resources:

  • Jade on hand: [X]
  • Current Character pity: [Y]
  • Current Light Cone pity: [Z]
  • 50/50 status: [Won/Lost]

Phase 3 Income: 4,000-5,000 total

Total Available: Current + Income = [Total]

Allocation:

  • Option A: Sunday to hard pity = (90 - Y) × 160
  • Option B: A Grounded Ascent = (80 - Z) × 160
  • Option C: Soft pity attempts
  • Option D: Skip, save for [future]

Remaining: Total - Choice = [X] Jade

Risk Assessment

Conservative (guarantee):

  • 14,400 for guaranteed Sunday
  • 12,800 for guaranteed cone
  • 100% success, predictable cost

Aggressive (50/50):

  • 7,200 attempting Sunday
  • If win, use remainder on cone
  • 50% both, 50% neither

Moderate (soft pity):

  • 10,080 to cone soft pity (pull 63)
  • If success, proceed to character
  • ~40% success, preserves 2,000+ if fail

Choose based on risk tolerance.

Common Spending Traps

New Characters Always Better

Reality: New E0 character with 4-star cone may underperform optimized existing character with signature.

New character requires:

  • 308,000 Credits + ascension materials
  • 3,000,000+ Credits for traces
  • Weeks of relic farming
  • Additional jade for light cone/supports

Existing character + signature:

  • Minimal leveling costs
  • Immediate performance boost
  • Enhanced across all teams

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Example: Spent 8,000 Jade (50 pulls) chasing Sunday, no 5-star. New Phase 4 banner announced with better value.

Fallacy:Must finish to not waste 50 pulls

Reality: 50 pulls aren't wasted—pity carries over. Only question: Do next 40 pulls toward Sunday beat saving 6,400 for Phase 4?

Avoidance: Decide max pull count before starting. Stop at limit regardless of pity.

FOMO vs Strategic Planning

Sunday reruns in 6-9 months. Skipping Phase 3 only delays acquisition by half a year—minimal impact with existing Harmony supports.

Mitigation:

  • Maintain priority list (top 3 only)
  • Accept missing limited items is inevitable for F2P
  • Powercreep makes current meta replaceable

Light Cone Rerun Rarity

Character reruns: 6-9 months (popular), 9-12 months (niche) Light cone reruns: 12-18+ months (less predictable)

A Grounded Ascent may not rerun until Version 4.5+. Pulling cone now + waiting for Sunday rerun (6-9 months) beats reverse strategy (12+ month cone wait).

Alternative Strategies

Best 4-Star Substitutes

Memories of the Past:

  • 18.4% Energy Regen Rate (S5)
  • +56% Break Effect
  • No SP recovery, no DMG buffs

Dance! Dance! Dance!:

  • 16% action advance to all (S5)
  • +24% DMG for 2 turns
  • Requires Ultimate, team-wide not targeted

Planetary Rendezvous:

  • +24% DMG (S5, element-restricted)
  • No Energy/SP mechanics

Recommendation: Memories closest to signature but 30-40% performance loss.

Split Investment: Soft Pity Strategy

Light cone soft pity:

  • Pull to 63 = 10,080 Jade
  • 5-7% per pull from 63-80
  • Stop at 70 if unsuccessful
  • ~40% success, saves 2,000-3,000 vs hard pity

Character soft pity:

  • Pull to 74 = 11,840 Jade
  • Increasing rates 74-90
  • Stop at 80 if unsuccessful
  • ~50% success

Risk: May end with neither, 10,000-12,000 spent, no 5-star. Only for risk-tolerant players.

Saving for Future: Opportunity Cost

Known upcoming:

  • Version 3.9 Phase 1: Rumored Quantum DPS
  • Version 4.0: Major update, powerful limiteds
  • Reruns: Acheron, Ruan Mei, Aventurine expected

Framework:

  1. Estimate total jade through 4.0
  2. List desired items, rank priority
  3. Calculate jade for top 3 at hard pity
  4. If insufficient, skip lower priorities

Smart Top-Ups

When Purchases Make Sense

Justified:

  • Within 10 pulls of guarantee (1,600 Jade secures 80-pull investment)
  • Securing both character + cone (7,200 bridges 20,000→27,200 gap)
  • Capitalizing on won 50/50 (unexpected early success)

Unjustified:

  • Just in case without plan
  • 50/50 gambling without guarantee
  • Last-hour FOMO impulse

BitTopup Advantage

HSR Oneiric Shards recharge via BitTopup:

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  • Secure encrypted payments
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  • Excellent customer service
  • High user ratings

Break-Even Analysis

Time value:

  • F2P: 8,000-10,000 Jade/month
  • Sunday + cone improve clears by 2-3 cycles = 200-300 Jade/cycle
  • 2 MoC rotations/month = 400-600 Jade from improved performance
  • If purchase <$10 for 1,600 Jade to secure guarantee, performance gains offset cost

Only applies to small guarantee-securing purchases, not 50/50 gambling.

FAQ

How much jade guarantees light cone? 80 pulls = 12,800 Jade for hard pity. Featured has 75% rate first 5-star, dropping to 18.75% then 6.25%. Worst-case: 160 pulls (25,600 Jade) for guaranteed featured. Average: 63 pulls (10,080 Jade) with soft pity.

Is Sunday's signature worth pulling? Yes if you own Sunday and use him in summon teams (Aglaea/Jing Yuan). Provides 38-50% damage improvement over 4-stars via CRIT DMG, SP recovery, Energy regen, DMG stacks. Better value than E1 (25% DEF ignore for 14,400-28,800). Skip if you don't own Sunday or have critical roster gaps.

Can 4-stars replace 5-star signatures? 4-stars provide 60-70% of signature performance. Memories of the Past replicates Energy support but loses SP recovery, DMG stacks, direct Energy regen. 30-40% performance gap = 1-2 cycle difference in MoC. Sufficient for casual players; competitive players need signatures.

Constellations or light cones first? Support light cones > Support constellations. A Grounded Ascent (12,800) beats E1 (14,400-28,800) via SP economy + Energy enabling new teams. For DPS: E1 often > signature. Rule: Support cones > Support cons; DPS cons > DPS cones (exceptions exist).

F2P jade during Phase 3? 4,000-5,000 total over 15 days: 1,800 Daily Training, 1,600 Gift of Odyssey, 800 MoC, 800 Pure Fiction, 800 Apocalyptic Shadow, 200-400 events. Reduce 200-400 per incomplete endgame mode. Covers 25-31 pulls—insufficient for hard pity without reserves.

Damage difference: signature vs substitute? 38-50% higher team damage with A Grounded Ascent vs Memories of the Past when buffing Aglaea. From: 16.8% extra CRIT DMG on Ultimate buff, +45% Hymn DMG, 6 Energy/action for more Ultimates, +0.5 SP/turn for liberal Skills. Practical: 1-2 fewer MoC cycles, 15-20% higher damage-per-screenshot. Gap widens in long battles where Energy/SP compound.

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